9th Grade On-Track: The Most Powerful Predictor of High School Success
How 9th Grade On-Track Programs have increased graduation rates across Arizona
With significant investment from the Arizona State Legislature in recent years, 9th Grade On-Track programs are taking off across the state.
Across the state, school districts including Tolleson Union, Phoenix Union, Mesa Public Schools, Casa Grade Union, Holbrook Unified, and more have begun implementing this program.
First-year success is crucial to on-time high school graduation. On-track status is a better predictor of high school success than race, gender, socioeconomic status, or test scores.
What does that mean?
Traditionally, schools have worked to intercept students in 12th grade—or senior year—when they are not on track to graduate—meaning they don’t have all of their prerequisites complete or have failed enough classes that they are at risk of not making it to graduation.
9th Grade On-Track flips to focus on helping students succeed during their freshman year by helping students finish this critical year with at least a quarter of their credits needed to graduate and having failed no more than one class.
With statewide grant opportunities, schools have been able to invest in counselors, resources, and data collection that helps them make sure 9th grade students are starting on track.
And the results have been astonishing.
Reductions in chronic absenteeism, improved student behavior, boosts in teacher retention, and stronger career and technical education pathways.
Across Phoenix Union High School District, the number of students earning college credit increased by more than 300%.
With investment coming out to around $150 per student each year, 9th Grade On-Track is a low cost solution for a huge impact.
Want to keep up on schools that are implementing this program and learn how to advocate for 9th Grade On-Track in your school district?
Are you a school board member or superintendent looking for more information on if 9th Grade On-Track is right for your district?
Read More:
Arizona Students Celebrate First Day of School with New 9th Grade On-Track Programs
This year, more than 20,000 students will return to schools with 9th Grade On-Track programs due to $3.4 million of grant funding included in the Fiscal Year 2026 budget. This is up from 4,900 students during the 2025-2026 school year who attended schools with…
Grant Applications for 9th Grade On-Track Funding are Now Open
School districts can now apply for grants to implement evidence-based programs to improve on-track rates Arizona – This week, the Arizona Department of Education published a Request for Proposals for…
In the News:
Daily Independent – August 11, 2026
9th Grade On-Track grows statewide despite uncertain future funding
Freshman students at more Arizona high schools will have access to academic support programs this school year after lawmakers approved $3.4 million in fiscal year 2026 …
Daily Independent – Nov. 12, 2025
Grants to help ninth-graders succeed now open to Arizona districts
The Arizona Department of Education has opened grant applications for school districts to implement 9th Grade On-Track programs, an initiative designed to help …
ABC15 – May 9, 2025
How ‘Freshman House’ program is improving graduation rates in Phoenix
Five years ago, the Phoenix Union High School District started a program called Freshman House, trying to improve graduation rates …
Daily Independent – June 10, 2026
9th Grade On-Track helped me; I want all students to benefit – Opinion
When I first enrolled in Camelback High School as a freshman, I was nervous. Everyone talks about how difficult the transition is between middle and high school.
KTAR – July 9, 2025
Arizona budget includes $3.4M to help high school freshman get on track to graduate
The new Arizona state budget includes $3.4 million to help high school freshmen stay on track to graduate on time.
Daily Independent – April 14, 2026
Arizona districts awarded 9th Grade On-Track grants
Several Arizona school districts — including Phoenix Union High School District, Mesa Public Schools, Tolleson Union, J.O. Combs Unified, and Apache Junction Unified …
Arizona Republic – June 14, 2025
‘Like in Harry Potter’: Phoenix Camelback High School freshmen split into ‘houses’
Phoenix Union High School District is building a stronger foundation for incoming students by restructuring freshman year.
